"Back to the future"

When AIRAH registered its half-century in 1970, we asked our members to make long-term predictions for different parts of the HVAC&R industry.

​Here's what they saw.
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​This article appears in Ecolibrium, March 2020

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​BUILT-IN HOME FRIDGES

Kelvinator Australia’s chief design engineer J. A. Christophersen, M.AIRAH, provided his perspective on the future of domestic refrigeration. 

“Further development of plastic materials will enable cost reductions to be made. Convenience features such as automatic ice makers will become popular. I believe that solid state controls will ultimately replace conventional controls and will enable better control of temperature and humidity. This may lead to more specialised compartments for food storage becoming available. Automatic defrost will be in demand and not, as now, on time, resulting in running economies. 

“The development of the built-in refrigerator and freezer is possible so that these are part of a dwelling. It is also possible that the vapour compression cycle may be replaced by systems employing other phenomena; thermo-electric refrigeration is now a possibility. It currently fails in operating and initial cost – exactly the same thing was probably said in 1920 of the vapour compression cycle.” 

NATURAL REFRIGERANTS ON THE HORIZON

​G. C. Burke, A.M.AIRAH, project engineer at D. N. McKenzie & Co. shared his vision for commercial refrigeration. 

“Alongside mechanical refrigeration, which should continue as the major contributor in future development, there may be an increase in the use of CO2 and nitrogen as expandable refrigerants, primarily for transport refrigeration, provided, of course, that a reduction in cost makes this economically attractive. Absorption refrigeration will hardly play a major role in commercial refrigeration as the capacities inherent in larger absorption plants are far in excess of ‘commercial’ requirements. Overall tendency is to more compact equipment, less installation work and increased mobility, particularly for smaller coolrooms, freezer rooms and cabinets. 

“There is an increasing demand for high-quality frozen food, which should lead to considerable bulk buying by individual householders over the next 10 years. This would mean a larger number of frozen food distribution centres to be built and installed, all of which can be catered for by commercial refrigeration. Associated with this trend is the increase in refrigerated road transport, particularly in view of more stringent legislation to be expected in the handling of refrigerated perishables.” 

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EARLY DAYS FOR CO-GENERATION

K. C. Fulton, M.AIRAH, from Carrier Air Conditioning offered his tuppence on the future of industrial refrigeration and air conditioning. 

“Currently, a great deal of rethinking is being done on building operating costs, and this may well have a decisive influence on future designs. The cost of reheat and of pumping and fan hp in particular are under scrutiny. ​
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“The conventional owner-architect-builder-engineer-contractor-equipment supplier relationship is also receiving attention, with a view to improving co-ordination and site efficiency. Factors are the design modifications commonly necessary after a contract is let and the heavy demands placed on the engineer when dealing with a contractor who lacks a strong design capability. 

“Onsite power generation and the ‘total energy’ concept continues to attract much attention (although so far little action). 

“After an initial spate of subsidised installations in the 70s, the total energy system will be usual in the large integrated district schemes, but rare in individual buildings. Although natural gas is a “clean” fuel, anti-pollution legislation may be a factor, with expensive control measures more readily absorbed in the larger plants.” 

THE FUTURE OF FOOD

In 1972, J. R. Vickery, F.AIRAH, would become the inaugural winner of AIRAH’s James Harrison medal. In 1970, he provided his expert predictions for the cold chain. 

“It is undeniable that refrigerated frozen storage is costly, particularly if the produce of one year has to be stored in part until the next harvest is gathered and processed. It is likely, therefore, that the search for lower capital and running costs in cold stores will be actively pursued. Design studies now in progress may tell us whether the ‘high-rise’ cold store of one-storey 80–90 feet high and fitted with stacking cranes will be the answer. 

“The proportion of working wives is likely to increase steadily during this century. At the same time, higher levels of real income will become widespread. The amount of money available to pay for convenience will increase. Both factors will tend, therefore, to increase the market for ‘convenience’ and other foods requiring a minimum cooking and preparation. A major share of this new market will go to pre-cooked, frozen foods.” 

HARRISON'S HEIRS

F. G. Hogg, M.AIRAH, weighed in on the future of Australian refrigeration research. 

“The larger refrigeration and air conditioning firms will have their own active and well-equipped research and development facilities. The relevant government and university laboratories will be spending a major proportion of their time on investigations sponsored by industry, both specific projects for individual firms and broader problems financed by sections of industry or groups of firms, working through some form of research association. 

“Australia will be far more self-sufficient in its industrial research and will be developing and exporting an increasing range of its own refrigeration and air conditioning products. While it is unlikely that the great days of Harrison and Mort will ever be reproduced, research in these fields will be more soundly based, if less spectacular, and will be contributing at least as much to the nation’s economy.” 

FROM MAINFRAMES
​TO MACHINE LEARNING

It was still early days for computing when Honeywell national commercial manager D. M. Bell provided his outlook on controls. 

“Computer-operated central control panels automatically gathering data and automatically operating the building with optimum efficiency will become the third generation. 

“The size and complex nature of buildings under design or consideration at present impose some considerations that have not been encountered in other large structures. Operating their mechanical and electrical systems, for example, at optimum efficiency will require hundreds of decisions to be made each minute. This is completely beyond the ability of any human operator, but will be adequately handled by the computer. 

“A computer-oriented system will … integrate all the data pertinent to economical operation of the system and take appropriate action. It must be able to issue instructions to the operating staff.” ​

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AIRAH invites you to make your own prediction on where the HVAC&R industry is heading over the next 100 years. Click here to get involved.